I believe in statistics…
Sunday, October 24th, 2004… but they’re total crap.
Tonight’s game was the highest scoring Game 1 in World Series history. So what?!?!
What would be more impressive would be a World Series game in which no record of any kind was broken. In the last 100 years, there have been 100 Game 1’s. Actually, less, because a few Series weren’t played. That’s less games than are played in a regular season. There are basically infinite ways you can look at the numbers, so the chances are pretty good that you’ll be able to pull out a quasi-meaningful number that’s never happened in a (relatively) small pool of games.
Another meaningless number: the Red Sox being the first team to win a postseason series after being down 0-3. Everybody kept talking about this like it was some inviolable law of nature. You have to ask yourself, “why was this so?” Probably, a team that gets down 0-3 is hopelessly mis-matched against its competition. This was obviously not the case with the Yankees; the teams were very evenly matched, and being down 0-3 was a fluke to begin with.
The danger in making too much out of statistics is that people constantly defy them, or appear to defy them, and so people discount them wholesale. You are constantly hearing baseball people saying “I’m not a numbers guy”. There are just right and wrong ways to understand stats, and right and wrong ways to use what you learn from them. It’s like the mutual fund companies always tell you: past performance is no guarantee of future success. And that’s probably the biggest mistake I see people making using baseball stats. If a batter has bad numbers against a certain pitcher, there are tons of factors that could be the real cause, including things a batter can work on.

So, now that Mark Bellhorn has hit yet another home run in the postseason, this one to win game 1 of the World Series, I’m coming around to him. He’s still my least favorite player on the team, but maybe there’s something to him. My previous assessment was that he has such a high number of both walks and strikeouts because he’s just too lazy to swing the bat; his slothful fielding confirms this impression. Anyway, that can’t be the whole story if you get three important home runs in as many games. 